NeoPred: dual-phase CT AI forecasts pathologic response to neoadjuvant chemo-immunotherapy in NSCLC.
Authors
Affiliations (7)
Affiliations (7)
- Department of Thoracic Surgery and Oncology, the First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University, State Key Laboratory of Respiratory Disease, National Clinical Research Center for Respiratory Disease, Guangzhou Institute of Respiratory Health, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China.
- Yuefa Health Technology (Guangzhou) Co., Ltd, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China.
- Department of Thoracic Surgery, Shanghai Chest Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, Shanghai, China.
- Department of Radiology, Shanghai Chest Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, Shanghai, China.
- Department of Thoracic Surgery, Cancer Hospital of Dalian University of Technology, Liaoning Cancer Hospital and Institute, Shenyang, Liaoning, China.
- Department of Thoracic Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China.
- Department of Thoracic Surgery and Oncology, the First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University, State Key Laboratory of Respiratory Disease, National Clinical Research Center for Respiratory Disease, Guangzhou Institute of Respiratory Health, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China [email protected] [email protected].
Abstract
Accurate preoperative prediction of major pathological response or pathological complete response after neoadjuvant chemo-immunotherapy remains a critical unmet need in resectable non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Conventional size-based imaging criteria offer limited reliability, while biopsy confirmation is available only post-surgery. We retrospectively assembled 509 consecutive NSCLC cases from four Chinese thoracic-oncology centers (March 2018 to March 2023) and prospectively enrolled 50 additional patients. Three 3-dimensional convolutional neural networks (pre-treatment CT, pre-surgical CT, dual-phase CT) were developed; the best-performing dual-phase model (NeoPred) optionally integrated clinical variables. Model performance was measured by area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve (AUC) and compared with nine board-certified radiologists. In an external validation set (n=59), NeoPred achieved an AUC of 0.772 (95% CI: 0.650 to 0.895), sensitivity 0.591, specificity 0.733, and accuracy 0.627; incorporating clinical data increased the AUC to 0.787. In a prospective cohort (n=50), NeoPred reached an AUC of 0.760 (95% CI: 0.628 to 0.891), surpassing the experts' mean AUC of 0.720 (95% CI: 0.574 to 0.865). Model assistance raised the pooled expert AUC to 0.829 (95% CI: 0.707 to 0.951) and accuracy to 0.820. Marked performance persisted within radiological stable-disease subgroups (external AUC 0.742, 95% CI: 0.468 to 1.000; prospective AUC 0.833, 95% CI: 0.497 to 1.000). Combining dual-phase CT and clinical variables, NeoPred reliably and non-invasively predicts pathological response to neoadjuvant chemo-immunotherapy in NSCLC, outperforms unaided expert assessment, and significantly enhances radiologist performance. Further multinational trials are needed to confirm generalizability and support surgical decision-making.