Comparative analysis of tumor and mesorectum radiomics in predicting neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy response in locally advanced rectal cancer.

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Abstract

Neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (CRT) is known to increase sphincter preservation rates and decrease the risk of postoperative recurrence in patients with locally advanced rectal tumors. However, the response to CRT in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) varies significantly. The objective of this study was to compare the performance of models based on radiomics features of the tumor alone, the mesorectum alone, and a combination of both in predicting tumor response to neoadjuvant CRT in LARC. This retrospective study included 101 patients with LARC. Patients were categorized as responders (modified Ryan score 0-1) and non-responders (modified Ryan score 2-3). Pre-CRT magnetic resonance imaging evaluations included tumor-T2 weighted imaging (T2WI), tumor-diffusion weighted imaging (DWI), tumor-apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) maps, and mesorectum-T2WI. The first radiologist segmented the tumor and mesorectum from T2-weighted images, and the second radiologist performed tumor segmentation using DWI and ADC maps. Feature reproducibility was assessed by calculating the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) using a two-way mixed-effects model with absolute agreement for single measurements [ICC(3,1)]. Radiomic features with ICC values <0.60 were excluded from further analysis. Subsequently, the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator method was applied to select the most relevant radiomic features. The top five features with the highest coefficients were selected for model training. To address class imbalance between groups, the synthetic minority over-sampling technique was applied exclusively to the training folds during cross-validation. Thereafter, classification learner models were developed using 10-fold cross-validation to achieve the highest performance. The performance metrics of the final models, including accuracy, precision, recall, F1-score, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), were calculated to evaluate the classification performance. Among the 101 patients, 36 were classified as responders and 65 as non-responders. A total of 25 radiomic features from the tumor and 20 from the mesorectum were found to be statistically significant (<i>P</i> < 0.05). The AUC values for predicting treatment response were 0.781 for the tumor-only model (random forest), 0.726 for the mesorectum-only model (logistic regression), and 0.837 for the combined model (logistic regression). Radiomic features derived from both the tumor and mesorectum demonstrated complementary prognostic value in predicting treatment response. The inclusion of mesorectal features substantially improved model performance, with the combined model achieving the highest AUC value. These findings highlight the added predictive contribution of the mesorectum as a key peritumoral structure in radiomics-based assessment. Currently, the response of locally advanced rectal tumors to neoadjuvant therapy cannot be reliably predicted using conventional methods. Recently, the significance of the mesorectum in predicting treatment response has gained attention, although the number of studies focusing on this area remains limited. In our study, we performed radiomics analyses of both the tumor tissue and the mesorectum to predict neoadjuvant treatment response.

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