Predicting the efficacy of bevacizumab on peritumoral edema based on imaging features and machine learning.

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Abstract

This study proposes a novel approach to predict the efficacy of bevacizumab (BEV) in treating peritumoral edema in metastatic brain tumor patients by integrating advanced machine learning (ML) techniques with comprehensive imaging and clinical data. A retrospective analysis was performed on 300 patients who received BEV treatment from September 2013 to January 2024. The dataset incorporated 13 predictive features: 8 clinical variables and 5 radiological variables. The dataset was divided into a training set (70%) and a test set (30%) using stratified sampling. Data preprocessing was carried out through methods such as handling missing values with the MICE method, detecting and adjusting outliers, and feature scaling. Four algorithms, namely Random Forest (RF), Logistic Regression, Gradient Boosting Tree, and Naive Bayes, were selected to construct binary classification models. A tenfold cross-validation strategy was implemented during training, and techniques like regularization, hyperparameter optimization, and oversampling were used to mitigate overfitting. The RF model demonstrated superior performance, achieving an accuracy of 0.89, a precision of 0.94, F1-score of 0.92, with both AUC-ROC and AUC-PR values reaching 0.91. Feature importance analysis consistently identified edema volume as the most significant predictor, followed by edema index, patient age, and tumor volume. Traditional multivariate logistic regression corroborated these findings, confirming that edema volume and edema index were independent predictors (p < 0.01). Our results highlight the potential of ML-driven predictive models in optimizing BEV treatment selection, reducing unnecessary treatment risks, and improving clinical decision-making in neuro-oncology.

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